International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol sees little prospect of a return to normal oil market conditions in 2027 as the ongoing Middle East war continues to disrupt supplies and keep prices elevated.
“I personally don’t see any credible pathway that 2027 will be a year of normalization,” Birol told a conference organized by the Financial Times, referring to Gulf supply disruptions following US and Israeli attacks on Iran in February.
The conflict has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel from less than $70 before hostilities began. Damage to Gulf refineries has also contributed to record-high diesel prices.
To ease supply pressures, the IEA has coordinated the release of up to 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves held by member countries. Birol said further releases remained an option if the situation deteriorated.
He warned that renewed tensions in the Middle East could prompt governments to consider additional measures. Concerns over Iran’s threats to control tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz have also increased shipping insurance costs, despite reports that oil flows have recently recovered to prewar levels.
