TOKYO, July 24, 2026 – Escalating tensions in the Middle East and renewed disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could cost Japan more than ¥7 trillion in additional energy expenses this year if the crisis persists, according to a new analysis by climate advocacy group 350.org.
The report estimates that higher oil and gas prices since the outbreak of the Iran conflict have already imposed an additional US$18.75 billion burden on Japan. Even if the Hormuz crisis eases quickly, Japanese consumers are still expected to face more than ¥4 trillion in extra energy costs by the end of 2026.
The warning comes as Brent crude oil has climbed back above US$100 per barrel, driven by renewed US-Iran hostilities and disruptions to Saudi oil shipments linked to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
At a press briefing, 350.org urged Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to reconsider plans for new oil and gas investments, including projects in the United States, and instead accelerate investments in domestic renewable energy and energy-efficiency measures.
The organization argued that Japan’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels leaves its economy highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and volatile global energy prices.
According to the analysis, the estimates are based on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook 2026 energy price scenarios, Japan’s fossil fuel consumption data and average market prices since the conflict began. The study noted that the figures exclude broader economic impacts such as higher food and fertilizer costs, inflation, slower economic growth and employment losses, meaning the overall economic damage could be substantially greater.
Masayoshi Iyoda, Japan Campaigner at 350.org, said continued dependence on imported oil and gas exposes households to recurring price shocks, adding that greater investment in homegrown renewable energy and energy efficiency would strengthen Japan’s long-term energy security while reducing consumer costs.
The organization also warned that continued investment in long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure risks creating stranded assets as renewable energy technologies become increasingly competitive, urging Japan to align its energy strategy with long-term climate and economic resilience.
