PARIS, July 24, 2026 - Global oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel once again on Thursday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East intensified concerns over energy supplies, prompting fresh fears of inflation and slower economic growth worldwide. Report BSS/AFP
Brent crude, the international benchmark, crossed the $100-per-barrel mark for the first time since May. Analysts warn that the latest surge could have a more severe impact on the global economy than previous spikes because the conflict shows no sign of easing while global oil supply buffers have already been significantly reduced.
The last time Brent traded above $100 was on March 12, during the early stages of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Before that, prices had crossed the same threshold following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The latest rally has been driven by attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The attacks have heightened concerns that the conflict could spread further, threatening one of the world’s most important oil export routes and disrupting millions of barrels of daily crude shipments.
Under normal conditions, the global economy consumes just over 100 million barrels of oil per day. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil production in mid-July remained around 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, underscoring the scale of current supply disruptions.
The risks have increased further as the Red Sea has become Saudi Arabia’s principal alternative export route since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh has been transporting crude through pipelines to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, enabling it to maintain roughly three-quarters of its pre-war export volumes.
However, analysts warn that continued attacks in the Red Sea could undermine this alternative route. Maya Senussi of Oxford Economics said the growing security threats are making Red Sea shipping increasingly difficult. The consultancy estimates that if both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea were effectively closed to commercial traffic, global oil prices could eventually climb beyond $160 per barrel.
Janiv Shah, Vice President of Rystad Energy, noted that the global oil market now has fewer safeguards than at the start of the conflict. Much of the world’s spare production capacity has already been utilized, while both strategic and commercial oil inventories have declined, leaving markets more exposed to prolonged supply disruptions.
The IEA also warned earlier this week that renewed fighting in the Middle East has significantly increased concerns over global energy security.
Despite the heightened risks, several factors continue to provide some support to the market. The IEA noted that oil exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are still reaching international markets through alternative routes. At the same time, producers including Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United States and Venezuela are increasing output, while China has been reducing crude oil imports.
In addition, the agency said its member countries collectively hold more than one billion barrels of strategic oil reserves, while consultancy Kpler estimated earlier this month that a record 1.35 billion barrels of crude and petroleum products are currently being transported by sea, helping to cushion supply shortages.
French energy giant TotalEnergies also sought to reassure markets, saying it has sufficient inventories to keep its refineries supplied despite current disruptions.
Nevertheless, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde expressed concern over the worsening situation, warning that continued attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are already affecting energy prices. She said the rapid rise in Brent crude prices could intensify inflationary pressures and may prompt central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer or even consider further rate increases.
Economists caution that sustained increases in oil and natural gas prices would raise production and transportation costs, weaken consumer spending and slow economic growth, particularly for energy-importing countries.
