Asia’s seaborne thermal coal imports are set to post their strongest monthly performance in six months, driven by increased demand from China, Japan and South Korea amid energy security concerns and changing market dynamics.
According to data compiled by commodity analytics firm Kpler, the region’s thermal coal imports are projected to reach 77.37 million tonnes in June, up sharply from 68.39 million tonnes in May and 63.24 million tonnes in June last year, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 22 percent.
Japan and South Korea have significantly increased coal purchases as utilities sought alternatives to costly liquefied natural gas (LNG) following supply disruptions linked to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Spot LNG prices surged after the conflict disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, making thermal coal a relatively more economical fuel for power generation despite higher coal prices.
Japan’s thermal coal imports are expected to reach 7.82 million tonnes in June, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and a 33 percent rise from the same period last year. South Korea’s imports are forecast at 7.30 million tonnes, the highest level since January and 41 percent above June 2025.
China, the world’s largest coal importer, is also expected to increase purchases, with June imports projected at 27.65 million tonnes, the highest in six months and nearly 48 percent higher than a year earlier.
Unlike Japan and South Korea, China’s higher imports are largely driven by domestic factors. Stronger demand for coal-fired power generation, coupled with declining domestic coal production following stricter mine safety inspections after a fatal mining accident, has tightened local supply and lifted domestic coal prices.
As Chinese coal prices climbed, imported coal from Indonesia and Australia became increasingly competitive, encouraging utilities to raise overseas purchases.
In contrast, India—the world’s second-largest thermal coal importer—is expected to maintain relatively stable imports at around 12.32 million tonnes in June, slightly above May but below the level recorded a year earlier. Higher international coal prices have discouraged additional imports, while utilities have relied on domestic inventories and increased renewable electricity generation to meet demand.
Analysts say the latest trade flows highlight how geopolitical tensions and domestic supply conditions continue to reshape Asia’s energy markets, with coal remaining an important fuel for electricity generation despite the region’s growing investment in renewable energy.
