Bangladesh appears to have adopted leapfrog strategy for achieving sustainable energy security towards achieving national vision for mid-income country by 2021 and developed country by 2041. The bottom line is to ensuring quality power and energy supply to all at affordable price in an environment-friendly manner. From the power market size of 10,000 MW in mid-2018 to 24,000 MW in 2021, 40,000 MW in 2030 and 60,000 MW in 2041 would be a paradigm shift. One must carefully assess the issues and challenges and be pragmatic and realistic. Does Bangladesh have the stomach to digest all impacts of imported fuel dependency? Can it arrange the billions of dollars of funding for implementing all infrastructures for coal and LNG import? Can the domestic industries, which mostly rely on low priced energy and power, remain competitive with much higher priced power and energy from expensive fuel? Does Bangladesh have or can grow required number of skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled human resources within time to manage the huge infrastructure and facilities? The planning and aggressive mission definitely needs courage but implementing mission requires required capacity for embracing all challenges.
The mission Bangladesh for development of mega energy and power projects may get severely affected for lack of required skills and efficiency of technical and managerial skills. The programs of required capacity development of human capital have not produced required number of skilled manpower to mastermind and spearhead planning, designing, engineering, implementation management and operation of so many imported coal-based ultra-super critical technology adopting large coal-fired power projects. So many mega energy and power projects are definitely going to be paradigm shift for Bangladesh energy and power sector. We are unsure whether Bangladesh is ready or not. In almost 10 years of the consecutive two terms of the present government, required infrastructure could not be created for utilizing the 16,000 MW plus power generation capacity. The highest generation possible was a little over 10,000 MW during the peak hours of a day. Only a little over 1 Tcf new gas could be added to the national grid but over 8 tcf gas from proven reserve was consumed from 2009-2018. The 3.2 billion tonnes proven reserve of superior quality coal remains mostly unutilized. Bangladesh is in a maze how to explore the vast untapped petroleum resources in the deep water of the Bay of Bengal. Power generation continues to suffer from serious crisis of fuel supply, capacity constraints of transmission and distribution system. Gas grid suffers from poor maintenance of gas grid and inefficient management of gas transmission infrastructure development.
In this backdrop, national energy security is getting uncertain and vulnerable for planned almost exclusive import dependency of primary fuel (LNG & Coal). Volatile global energy market would definitely create uncertain price impacts. Regional and global geopolitics can impact upon supply chain management. Bangladesh does not have facilities or would not be in a position to set up storage facilities for coal and LNG for 3-6 months to sustain any event of fuel supply chain disruptions. We are not sure if Bangladesh is going to have the right fuel mix for energy generation towards achieving sustainable energy security.
Present Scenario
Ten years of a democratic government over two consecutive terms is about to be completed soon. True, there has been significant milestone achieved in power generation. From a huge crisis prone situation, the situation in power grid improved a lot. From mere 3,000 MW actual supply to over 10,000 MW is a remarkable achievement. Gas production has also increased from 1,700 MMCFD to 2,700 MMCFD. But impressive GDP growth of over 6.5-7% annually has outpaced the growth of power and energy sector. Bangladesh has failed to diversify fuel mix. About 62% dependence on depleting natural gas has created gas famine in gas franchise area. Political dilemma has kept discovered coal resource underground. Poor planning, bureaucracy dominated mismanagement failed to achieve momentum in traditional fuel based (gas and coal) baseload power plants development. Dependency on imported liquid fuel-based contingency plants has grown above 40%. In the current volatile global fuel market, this dependency has already created panic.
Power Projects
All mega coal-fired power projects are running 3-4 years behind schedule. Coal import program (sourcing coal and firming long term supply contracts) appears dodgy. Coal transportation remains an issue as Bangladesh has only Matarbari South available for a reliable coal port development. About 12,000 MW coal power generation plants are planned for Matarbari Moheshkhali area in anticipation of a Coal Transshipment Terminal (CTT) of 40 million tonnes capacity at Matarbari. Right now, the Matarbari Coal Port Development for 2X1,200 MW JICA-assisted power plants appears to be on the right track. The 14-Km long 240-meter wide and 18.5-meter draft port connecting channel at Matarbari may be ready by 2021 if present momentum is maintained. Arranging required funding for the CTT at Matarbari is still uncertain. In this scenario, it is not sure how many of the planned coal-fired power plants would finally go ahead if government do not start mining its own coal adopting the technically appropriate mining technology and develop coal transportation facility by rail from mine mouth to power plants. In Australia, we witness coal being transported over 350-400 Km by railway.
Coal transportation for Rampal Power Plant and power plants at Payra would have to huddle across similar issues. Carrying coal by mother vessels, anchoring them at deep water and transshipment in smaller vessels can be an ideal solution for large power plants. Monsoon turbulence of Bay of Bengal would not allow transshipment for more than 7 months. Coal power plants may not have storage facilities for more than 3 months. We are sure whether all these are factored in planning of large imported coal power plants.
Exploiting Own Coal
We hope our policy makers have started realizing the huge risks and challenges of primary fuel import especially the issues of coal port and LNG terminal development and price impacts. Own coal still remains the most viable, technically and financially the best option. None has possibly read the very authentic feasibility study reports prepared by accredited mining consultants attached with Scheme of Development (SOD) of Phulbari Mining Project. All issues ranging from Farming Land Rehabilitation, Mine Water (subsurface and Surface Water Management), Relocation and Rehabilitation of Mine affected Community have been very precisely and professionally addressed. Barapukuria and Phulbari are the most ideal candidates for modern open cut mining. The government-appointed high-powered committee had also recommended for pilot open pit mining at Barapukuria North and reviewing the feasibility reports of Phulbari Mine by third party. But all those documents are gathering dust. There is no problem in going for mining from Khalaspeer and Dighipara adopting the right mining method.
We apprehend finding no other options the government would eventually go for mining. Nothing but mining properly and setting up 5,000-10,000 MW mine-mouth power plants can secure the immediate future of power supply for Bangladesh.
Exploring Petroleum Resources
The government lost a trick. If it could engage competent IOCs through transparent PSC block bidding in 2009-2010 in onshore frontier areas, by this time there was more than a chance of discovering 5 Tcf new gas at least. Instead conservative Bangladesh relying exclusively of capacity hamstrung BAPEX could discover few marginal gas fields, most of which are on the verge of depletion. Four potential blocks in greater Chittagong could not be exploited. BAPEX is struggling to even executing 25% of its planned 108 wells development program. GAZPROM engaged through controversial process cannot even assist BAPEX in achieving the target.
The situation in offshore exploration is more pathetic. PSC document could not be updated for fresh round of bidding in deep water over the last 5 years. Santos and Kris Energy JV are working in some blocks and ONGC in some other blocks. Fresh PSC could be signed with DAEWOO POSCO. Australian Energy Giant Woodside Petroleum has submitted a proposal for 5 deep water blocks. Woodside is working right across Myanmar offshore. Unfortunately, no new offshore gas could be added over the past two terms of the present government. The government initiative for engaging surveyor for multi-client survey fall flat for energy mafia interventions. The syndicate also tried to influence policymakers for unnecessary purchase of ship for conducting survey. In any case, the offshore exploration has fallen so far behind that nothing extraordinary can be expected adding to fuel supply in less than 7-9 years.
LNG Import
The LNG import initiative adopted in 2010 through setting up FSRU at Maheshkhali took ridiculously 8 years to reach the present state of Exceelerate-owned and operated FSRU with LNG from Qatar anchoring 7 Km into deep water. The onshore platform andits hook up with submerged pipeline on the sea side and CTMS of GTCL on the other side do not appear have firm-footed pipe support. Hope these do not cause issues in tidal surge and cyclone-prone area.
The first FSRU has the capacity for delivering 500 MMCFD RLNG to GTCL pipeline from Moheshkhali to Anwara CGS from where it will be delivered to Chittagong Ring Main of KGDCL and later to National Gas Grid through Anwara – Faujdarhat under implementation pipeline. The Moheshkhali –Anwara 90 Km 30 inches diameter transmission pipeline at 1,000 PSI pressure has capacity for evacuating 700 MMCFD gas. But in the present situation, it would not be possible evacuating more than 250 -300 MMCFD to KGDCL system. Anwara CGS to Ring Main connected at 20 inches dia segment can take 250MMCFD only. EP earlier recommended for construction of spur line to KAFCO, CUFL and power plants at Shikalbaha. These could take 120-150 MMCFD.
Most importantly, until construction of 28 Km long 42 inches diameter Anwara –Faujdarhat pipeline, no gas can be injected to national gas grid. The construction of this pipeline is suffering from ROW Problem, late supply of long delivery pipeline items. Moreover, HDD crossing of Karnaphuli river has developed technical problem. Drill strings while carrying out 36 inches reaming of drilled hole got broken. Subject to successfully retrieving the string, the pipeline would be completed. Otherwise, this pipeline construction would be delayed by a year or more. Bangladesh would have to count take or pay penalty to FSRU operator.
The second FRSU operator Summit cannot deliver more than 150-200 MMCFD of RLNG to GTCL system before end 2019 or early 2020. The 42 inches parallel pipeline of GTCL cannot be constructed before middle to late 2019. Few other FSRU and land-based LNG terminals would take longer than anticipated time for implementation.
Capacity Constraints
There is no wonder that the energy and power sector mega projects have reached such diabolic state. The governance of the sector has reached a very poorly coordinated stage. There is no coordination among various levels of policymakers. Advisor to Prime Minister, SDG Coordinator, State Minister of Energy, Secretaries of Concerned divisions are not seeing eye-to-eye about many issues. SoEs are interfered in their day to day operation. BERC is ignored. The required capacity development program not appears to be riding on the right track.
Bangladesh does not have a national standard for designing coal-fired power plant. Several development partners Chinese, Indian, Japanese, Koreans may adopt different standards in boiler and equipment design. Bangladesh does not have required capacity to effectively monitor their works. For large coal-fired power plants, Bangladesh must select the type of coal (heating value and composition) first for designing boiler and equipment. We heard the talks about blending Indonesian and Australian coal. Who will monitor this blending? Why not blending coal import and a certain heating value coal specified?
World standard for a 1,200 -1,320 MW coal-fired power plant (sub critical, super critical or ultra-super critical technology) requires 300 qualified and trained manpower. For Bangladesh having zero experience of operating Ultra Super Critical technology using coal power plant, the number would be 500 persons each plant -- 10 such plants makes it 5,000 trained skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled manpower. Some persons should have been ready by now as plant developers have started engineering and designing. Bangladesh must adopt an aggressive capacity development program. The priorities should be for Payra, Ramapal and Matarbari plants as these are at advanced stages. If the training programs start now, by 2020 at least 2,000 trained manpower would be ready.
Manpower for RLNG Utilization
RLNG would be traded on heating value and Wobbe Index. RPGCL, GTCL and gas distribution companies must have required number of trained professionals equipped with knowledge of energy metering, calibration of energy meters and chromatographs. RPGCL must have resources for managing LNG procurement process. RPGCL and GTCL as well as operation management of FSRU and land based terminals. Several persons so far have attended workshops, seminars and visited LNG facilities. But it is the time that right persons are trained in right facilities.
Years of poor planning, mismanagement and corruptions have led Bangladesh energy and power sector reaching the present stage of incompetence. The government did nothing wrong in going for mega projects. But without assessing the own capacity and without doing extensive techno-economic feasibility studies, adoption of so many mega power and energy projects has put the sector to serious challenges. For achieving the national visions energy and power sector needs reinvigorating. Policymakers must review governance process and implementation status of each mega project and take care of extensive capacity development. Fuel mix options must also be reviewed. Own coal must be exploited as soon as possible. Aggressive campaign must be launched without delay for deep water exploration. There must not be any delay waiting for multi-client survey. Major IOCs won’t rely on Bangladesh data in any case for risking multi-billion dollars investment in deep water exploration gamble. A workshop in Dhaka should be organized during the tenure of the current term of the government to discuss all aspects of model production sharing contract. Interested IOCs, international banks, development partners and experienced NRB resource persons may be invited. The PSC document may be updated as far as practicable, making it win-win for all.
Bangladesh needs balanced fuel mix for long term energy security – supplying energy and power to all at affordable cost.
Saleque Sufi;
Contributing Editor, EP
