Asia’s coal imports could surge in the final quarter of 2026 as high liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices make coal a significantly cheaper option for power generation ahead of the winter heating season.
Australian thermal coal prices are around $143 per tonne, equivalent to about $5.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), compared with approximately $25 per MMBtu for LNG delivered to Asia.
The wide price gap is encouraging utilities to favour coal over gas.
China, Japan and South Korea imported about 122 million tonnes of coal in the July–September quarter. Their combined imports could rise by around 20 million tonnes in the final quarter, based on seasonal trends, as utilities replenish stocks to meet higher heating demand.
Indonesia and Australia, the region’s major coal suppliers, could benefit from increased orders.
