Sub-Saharan Africa’s off-grid solar market is projected to expand by 450% by 2035, driven by rising diesel costs, falling solar module prices and growing private investment, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The consultancy describes off-grid solar as a key driver of electrification across the region, with growth expected to vary significantly between markets. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Kenya are forecast to lead the expansion.
Nigeria is expected to account for nearly 35% of projected off-grid solar installations. Much of the growth will come from commercial, industrial and mining customers seeking to reduce dependence on expensive diesel generation.
In the DRC, growth will combine mining-related demand with rural electrification, while Kenya’s market is expected to increasingly focus on reducing energy costs for existing electricity users. Zambia, Ethiopia, Ghana and Tanzania are also identified as important growth markets.
However, access to finance remains the biggest obstacle to achieving the forecast.
