The United Nations has warned that the warming climate phenomenon El Niño is likely to return by mid-2026, potentially driving higher global temperatures and extreme weather events. Report BSS/AFP
According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño conditions could emerge as early as the May–July period, with early indicators suggesting the possibility of a strong event.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, altering global weather systems, including wind, rainfall, and atmospheric pressure.
The last El Niño event contributed to record-breaking global heat, making 2023 one of the hottest years on record and pushing 2024 to the highest temperature levels ever recorded.
WMO climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia said there is “high confidence” in the development of El Niño following a period of neutral conditions earlier this year, with further strengthening expected.
Recent climate updates show a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, signaling a clear transition toward El Niño conditions.
Forecasts also indicate a widespread trend of above-normal land temperatures globally over the coming months, raising concerns about intensified heatwaves and shifting rainfall patterns.
While the WMO noted there is no clear evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, it warned that a warmer atmosphere and oceans can amplify their impacts.
This means stronger heatwaves, heavier rainfall, and more extreme weather events due to increased energy and moisture in the climate system.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and can last between nine and twelve months, making their return a significant factor in short-term global climate outlooks.
