Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 is a visionary step towards fulfilling the commitment of achieving a safe, resilient, and prosperous Bangladesh, and it would ensure an optimistic future for the next generations. The potential of deltaic Bangladesh even faced the long-term challenges of climate change impacts and natural disasters. The government adopted the plan with the cooperation of the Netherlands government, taking their delta experiences.
The plan aims to ensure long-term water, food, and energy security, with economic growth, poverty alleviation, and environmental sustainability, reducing vulnerability to natural disasters, and building resilience to climate change and other deltaic challenges in Bangladesh, the largest delta in the world. The plan also defines the short-medium, and long-term goals, targets, and strategies as steps to achieve the vision and make the plan successful.
Bangladesh has been experiencing rapid socio-economic development in recent times with improved per capita income, higher GDP growth, and better performance in social indicators, e.g. education, health, sanitation, child mortality, etc. The economy is gradually transforming from a rural to an urban, more industrial and service-oriented economy. The deltaic formation by the confluence of three mighty rivers, e.g. Padma, Meghna, and Jamuna, the country is often affected by tidal surges, flooding, river erosion, drought, cyclones, and salinity-intrusion, which causes continuous challenges to the basic human needs of security.
The development of the country is also threatened by other challenges, e.g. urbanization, declining land availability, weak infrastructure, energy shortage, and overpopulation. The plan is to integrate (a combination of relevant elements in a comprehensive approach to the total national system), the medium to long-term aspirations to achieve SDGs by 2030, and upper-middle income status by 2041.
Background of the Development Plan
The history of Bangladesh's development can be referred to with a quotation by the Father of the Nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, which was printed in the 1st 5-year plan foreword message (1973-1978, November 1973):
“No plan, however well formulated, can be implemented unless there is a total commitment on the part of the people of the country to work hard and make necessary sacrifices”.
Bangabandhu was always committed to developing flood control, drainage, and irrigation facilities in the country, and established the relief ministry immediately after the independence, giving attention to building a disaster-resilient country. He also initiated the construction of earthen forts in 1972, locally known as ‘Mujib-Killa’ in coastal regions, aiming to provide shelter to coastal vulnerable people affected by disasters with livestock. The Mujib-Killa was the first initiative in history to minimize the loss and damages.
Plan for the Future Generations
The Delta plan looks primarily at the Delta agenda up to 2050, but its implications beyond 2050, and sets up a long-term vision for Bangladesh up to 2100 as ‘Achieving a safe, climate resilient and prosperous delta’, through strong, adaptive and integrated strategies.
The strategies are based on public funding and involve some combination of tax financing, application of cost-recovery based on the ‘beneficiary-pays principle’, and mobilizing foreign funding including the global Green Climate Fund initiative. The plan has a total capital investment cost estimated at USD 37 billion. The delta plan is a gift for the future generations by the present generation.
Climate Change and the Delta Plan
The climate change impact has already molded the seasonal variation, and its characteristics, to unusual warmer, rainfall, dryness, hot temperature, and increased frequency of natural disasters, and would result in additional inundation of 14% area of the country by 2050, if no actions are taken. The coastal districts are to be more vulnerable to floods and displacement of more than 35 million people to urban or higher lands, with a loss of 1.3% of GDP per year in a moderate impact to 2.0% of GDP per year in an extreme climate situation.
The delta plan process consists of major three steps: (i) conducting baseline studies; (ii) developing delta vision, goals, and management framework; and (iii) formulating adaptive strategy. The plan focuses on how to enable socioeconomic development under uncertain changing conditions.
The plan is holistic (understanding a system, happens as a whole, cannot be understood solely, where delta forms as holism), considering many themes, and sectors and bringing together strategies, integrated for the country in a single plan.
Development Challenges
The Delta Plan is not a new or separate development plan. The evidence from the experiences of global and Bangladesh suggested that climate change is a real threat to all national levels, ranked as the 5th most vulnerable country in the world in terms of risks from natural disasters.
Also, due to climate impact, the most vulnerable sector is agriculture, which increases the incidence of insect pests, diseases, and microorganisms. Rising temperature also reduces yields of agricultural products. Farm productivity will fall due to an increase in soil salinity caused by sea-level rise, flooding, and saline-water intrusion.
The other vulnerable sectors areforestry, ecosystems, and the largest mangrove forest - the Sundarbans, coastal land erosion, reduction of productive land, and increased natural disasters. Health hazards will also intensify. Water-borne diseases, such as diarrhea and dysentery, and vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue, are also climate-sensitive.
Plan Vision
The Delta Plan approaches a long-term vision to develop a broad-based Bangladesh by the end of the 21st Century (upto-2100). Thus, an integrated, comprehensive, and long-term delta vision might be formulated as: “achieving safe, climateresilient and prosperous delta”.
Plan Mission: The plan is formulated as to:
“Ensure long-term water and food security, economic growth and environmental sustainability while effectively reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and building resilience to climate change and other delta challenges through robust, adaptive and integrated strategies, and equitable water-governance”.
Plan Goals (long-term approaches)
This long-term vision needs specific goals or targets for implementing the vision. This is done by combining long-term development outcomes, with economic growth and poverty reduction, targets of the new perspective plan 2041 for reducing vulnerability from water and climate change impacts.
(A) Higher-level goals (upcoming perspective plan)
Goal 1: Eliminate extreme poverty by 2030;
Goal 2: Achieve upper middle-income status by 2030; and
Goal 3: Being a Prosperous Country beyond 2041.
(B) Specific goals (water-ecology-land use, contribute to higher level goals)
Goal 1: Ensure safety from floods and climate change-related disasters;
Goal 2: Enhance water security and efficiency of water usage;
Goal 3: Ensure sustainable and integrated river systems and estuaries management;
Goal 4: Conserve & preserve wetlands, and ecosystems, to promote their wise use;
Goal 5: Develop effective institutions and equitable governance for in-country and transboundary water resources management; and
Goal 6: Achieve optimal and integrated use of land and water resources.
(C) Plan Goals (managing uncertainties approaches, linking to outcomes)
The plan is a flexible adaptive approach to convert the vision to medium-term strategies, in the inherent uncertainties of the long-term behavior of natural disasters that influences the total environmental outcomes. The plan uses the best available information and policy options, and the scenarios and strategies are to be updated frequently. This adaptive approach includes all development targets and investment programs. The establishment of a “Delta Knowledge Bank”, doing sound monitoring and evaluation to assess progress and shortcomings are to be managed.
Development Hotspot
Six development hotspots are categorized for the consideration of hydrological regions, geographic type, and magnitude of the natural disasters. The hotspots are:
(1) Coastal Zone, comprising 19 coastal districts;
(2) Barind and Drought Prone Areas, comprising 18 districts;
(3) Haor and Flash Flood Areas, comprising 7 districts;
(4) Chattogram Hill Tracts, consisting of 3 hill districts;
(5) River Systems and Estuaries, comprising 29 districts with rivers, estuaries; and
(6) Urban Areas, consisting of 7 districts, most urban structures.
Development Strategies
The plan is to develop two policy options to evaluate the impact of climate change and natural disasters on development outcomes: Option-1: what happens to development outcomes if there is no Delta Plan (called a business-as-usual option); and Option-2 develops macroeconomic outcomes if the Delta Plan is adopted.
The results are very frustrating, with downward effects on the growth effort in option 1: (i) GDP growth rate starts falling due to climate change and natural disasters; (ii) Efficiency of capital falls; (iii) migration to cities, adding urbanization pressures; (iv) Agriculture productivity falls; (v) Land degradation and productivity reduce; (vi) Cost of urban production increases; (vii) Urban water-shortages, water quality and sanitation risks add to health costs and reduce quality of life.
Prioritization and Sequencing
Within each hotspot program, projects are to be prioritized and sequenced with adaptive pathways to help sequence projects, so that investments are neither ‘too much, too soon’, nor ‘too little’-‘too late’, but instead deliver ‘enough in time’. The projects are addressed in 3 central themes:
(1) Preventing ‘too much water’- (stopping floods, water-logging);
(2) Ensuring ‘enough’ water- (enabling water security for irrigation, adequate in-channel-flows for inland water navigation); and
(3) Ensuring ‘adequate quality water’- (preventing water pollution, ensuring urban/city safe water to drink).
Sectoral Strategies- Energy Sector Development
The energy and power sectors are facing many challenges, e.g. lack of adequate resources (private, public, external); issues with good governance, proper coordination, appropriate-cost and asset accounting system; irregular and insufficient gas supply; inadequate maintenance of power plants; tariff structures; implementation of power projects; organizing projects funds; fixing projects prioritization; and maintenance budget; which are to be focused and managed.
The power sector is experiencing a transition period at present and has been heavily dependent on natural gas. The gas reserves of the country are declining. The power sector will shift its dependence from natural gas to imported coal and local coal, with a gradual shift towards exploring potential renewables.
Water Sector Management
The nationwide demand for water is growing every day which is being intensified by several socio-technical drivers, for example, high demographic changes, rapid and unplanned urbanization, high sectoral demand (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, transportation, industries, forestry, etc.), and for climate change effects. The availability of water in dry and summer-rainy seasons creates complications in water resources management, and also complex relations related to the fact that the river water flows from 93% of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, which lies outside the border of Bangladesh and drained out to the Bay of Bengal through the country. The sustainable use of water provides the backbone of the Delta Plan. The strategies for managing water in the seasons are formulated, and flexible in respect of actions with its timeframe and uncertainties.
Bio-Diversity and Environmental Management
Wetlands are precious for the environment, ecology, and biodiversity. They are an integral part of the local ecosystem closely related to local cultures and support the livelihoods of millions of people based on diverse activities, such as fishing and agriculture. There is an urgent need to take action against wetlands degradation and maintain them through proper management.
Strategic considerations include (i) conservation and preservation of wetlands and ecosystems through institutional capacity-building, research, and awareness-raising programs; (ii) restoration of the Chalan-Beel and the Halda River; (iii) establishing greenbelt around the hills of the Kaptai Lake; (iv) preserving the Sundarban mangrove forest and parts of the Haor-Basin wetlands, planting of artificial mangrove forest, development of greenbelt, and development of the islands.
Coastal Zone Management
The coastal zone covers the southwest, south-central, and southeast areas (including plains of the Eastern Hills region) of Bangladesh, which, in its natural state, is often subjected to inundation by high tides, saline water intrusion, cyclonic storms, and associated tidal surges. Most of the coastal areas are protected by coastal polders, however, their vulnerability in the long term due to climate change-induced disasters, makes them a prime development domain within the Delta Plan. Water supply for domestic and other purposes is severely restrained, and the coastal zone’s sanitation coverage is below the national average.
The coastal zone, especially the flat and unprotected areas will severely be impacted due to cyclones, storm surges, and climate change-induced problems like sea-level rise, heavy monsoon downpours, unavailability of freshwater, and saltwater ingress. Due to rising sea levels, the salinity frontier of the coastal zone will move upstream gradually over the years.
Conclusions
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 is a holistic, integrated long-term, vision-based plan as a guide to achieve vision-2041 and gifts for the future generation. The plan has been developed in a new and innovative manner, taking development strategies and issues on the climate change effects into account, and is a key element in addressing uncertainty about the future.
The Delta Plan embraces scenarios that outline possible futures for the country. To draw up an efficient and effective implementation of the plan, considerations are to be given on appropriate strategic approaches with empirical knowledge. A large number of stakeholders at all levels, will be involved in the plan implementation process. To support the exchange of experiences and sharing of knowledge, an ‘above project level platform’ is also to be formed.
The coastal zone has a huge potential to create opportunities of national importance, which need to be prioritized and brought into a development circle. There is an adequate and predictable financing policy, which also needs to be ensured for the successful implementation of the Delta plan. The participation of the local community at the maximum level is highly encouraged in the development process for a better and resourceful Bangladesh.
(References: BD Delta Plan 2100-Planning Commission 2021; BD Delta Plan-World Bank 2022)
AKM Monowar Hossain Akhand, Former Additional Secretary, Ministry of Public Administration, Government of Bangladesh.
