Høvik, Norway, October 7, 2026: Energy-importing countries are expanding clean energy three times faster than energy exporters as governments seek to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas, according to the latest Energy Transition Outlook from DNV.
The report finds that the share of non-fossil energy in the primary energy mix of importing regions rose by 2.2 percentage points over the past five years, compared with just 0.7 percentage points in exporting regions. China, India and Europe have therefore shifted towards non-fossil energy more than three times faster than the Middle East, North America and Russia.
The disruption of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has further strengthened efforts by import-dependent countries to diversify energy sources and expand domestic power generation. DNV warns that prolonged geopolitical disruption could also cause lasting damage to fossil-fuel demand.
Under DNV’s latest forecast, the Middle East’s share of global oil production is expected to fall to around 40% by 2050, from 50% in last year’s outlook. A scenario in which the Middle East conflict continues until 2030 could reduce global oil and gas demand by 4–6% during the conflict, with demand remaining 2–5% below the main forecast thereafter.
“Energy security is redrawing the map of the energy transition,” said Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV, noting that importing countries are accelerating electrification, renewables and energy storage while exporters are increasing fossil-fuel investment and production.
Solar PV, onshore wind and battery storage are emerging as the main winners of the transition. Installed battery capacity has increased 14-fold over the past five years, while electrification is expected to accelerate to more than twice the pace recorded over the previous two decades.
However, high-cost technologies needed to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors are struggling to scale. DNV has reduced its long-term forecast for hydrogen and carbon capture and storage by 29% and 15%, respectively, compared with last year, citing costs and insufficient policy support. Nuclear power is an exception, with installed capacity projected to rise 30% over the next decade and 170% by 2060.
Artificial intelligence is also creating rapidly growing electricity demand. Global data-centre electricity consumption is forecast to nearly triple from around 400 TWh in 2025 to 1,100 TWh in 2030, although EV charging and space cooling will remain larger sources of electricity-demand growth through 2040.
Despite rapid growth in renewables and electrification, DNV projects that energy-related emissions will decline by only 44% by 2050, putting the world on track for around 2.3°C of warming. Net-zero emissions are not expected until the 2090s, highlighting the need for faster deployment of clean-energy technologies and stronger climate policies.
