Sadrul Hasan, UNB
Even though they have successfully managed power and gas supplies during the holy month of Ramadan, officials in both sectors are now facing a dilemma as they anticipate a looming crisis in the country during the upcoming peak summer season.
They predict that the country could experience around 3,000 MW of load shedding if the demand surpasses 18,000 MW during the peak summer months, which are expected to last from April 15th to September 15th.
Currently, the relatively mild temperatures during Ramadan have kept electricity demand within a manageable limit of 15,000 MW.
Official data from Power Grid Bangladesh PLC, which provides hourly updates on demand, supply, and load shedding, indicates that the country experienced 215 MW of load shedding when demand reached 13,700 MW at 4 pm on March 20.
“This was the highest level of load shedding in recent days,” stated an official from Power Grid Bangladesh, highlighting concerns about a potential widening gap between demand and supply in the coming period.
He noted that the shortfall had not exceeded 200 MW in recent days but expressed fears that it would continue to increase as temperatures rise.
The highest recorded electricity demand in recent days was 14,700 MW during the evening peak hour on March 19, while the supply stood at approximately 14,500 MW.
Officials at the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) acknowledged the significant support received from Petrobangla in securing gas supplies to maintain the operation of gas-fired power plants, which generated 6,500 MW.
“We have been receiving over 1,000 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) of gas. This is why there hasn't been a major shortfall in power generation,” an official explained.
He added that sufficient power generation was also ensured from coal-fired and furnace oil-based power plants.
“However, during peak summer, when the demand increases, it will be challenging to manage the situation unless gas supply is increased to 1,200 MMCFD,” he said.
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Petrobangla officials also voiced concerns regarding the anticipated surge in demand from the power sector.
Engineer Md. Rafiqul Islam, Director (Operation & Mines) of Petrobangla, said the government had implemented additional measures during Ramadan. “We imported an extra five LNG cargoes, considering the seriousness of the situation.”
“But in the coming summer, we will require even more gas imports to meet the growing demand. Nevertheless, this may not be feasible due to limitations in re-gasification facilities,” he added.
Rafiqul Islam elaborated that the country’s two LNG terminals have a maximum re-gasification capacity of 1,100 MMCFD, while the demand is expected to exceed 1,200 MMCFD.
“Even if the government desires, it cannot increase gas imports beyond nine cargoes per month – five from long-term contracts and four from the spot market," he said.
Statistics show that as of Wednesday, the country’s total gas supply was 2,877 MMCFD against a demand of approximately 3,800-4,000 MMCFD.
This included around 1,000 MMCFD from imported LNG, with the remaining 1,877 MMCFD originating from local production.
Given the circumstances, a senior BPDB official stated that they would rely more heavily on coal-fired and furnace oil-based power plants to bridge the gap.
“Currently, we are generating an average of 5,600 MW from gas-fired plants, 4,500 MW from coal-fired plants, and 2,500 MW from furnace oil-based plants, with the remaining 2,500 MW coming from imports and other sources,” he said.
He went on to say, “In summer, if gas supply does not improve, we will attempt to increase power generation from coal-fired and furnace oil-based plants.”
Despite all efforts, he acknowledged that peak summer is likely to see power cuts of at least 2,000 MW.
