The energy mix for power generation in Bangladesh is passing through a crossroad of major transition. For a long time, it has maintained a gas-based mono energy fuel supply system. As of late 2010, 90 percent of the power used to be generated by local gas-based power plants, an attractive climate friendly fuel. But Bangladesh could not continue its dominance of cleaner gas fuel options because of fast depleting local gas reserves. The nation has to adapt to an energy mix with multiple sources like coal, oil, LNG, nuclear, cross border power in addition to a reduced supply of local natural gas. Interestingly, coal has historically been a very minor fuel component for power generation in Bangladesh. When the Power System Master Plan (PSMP) was prepared in 2010, coal contribution in power generation was lifted from about 3 percent at that time to a projected 50 percent by 2030. The revised PSMP of 2016 brought down the projected coal contribution for power generation to 35 percent. Natural gas contribution was projected to be 35 percent, while nuclear, renewable and power import took the remaining 30 percent. Lately, it has been argued that even 35 percent coal power generation cannot have a smooth sail in a world that is overly concerned with environmental and climate change issues. The Power Division already initiated a move to cancel 10 coal-based power plant projects having a total proposed combined capacity of 7,461 megawatts (MW) of electricity. Proposed Moheshkhali 1,320MW coal-fired power plant, Ashuganj (Patuakhali) 1,320MW coal-based power plant and 1,200MW Uttarbanga super thermal plant in the public sector have been dropped from the government’s plan. In the existing PSMP 2016, about 60,000MW of power generation was targeted by 2041 in which primary fuel mix was set as each 35% will be coming from coal and gas while the remaining 30% will be covered by liquid fuel, renewable, nuclear and other sources. Changes in the PSMP cannot be brought overnight to accommodate renewables without sacrificing the target of assured supply of much needed electricity for the country.
Bangladesh has an aspiration to become a high-income country by 2041. The development of energy and power infrastructure therefore pursues not only the quantity but also the quality to realize long-term economic development. Since Bangladesh is facing the depletion of domestic gas supply, various issues such as sustainable development harmonizing with economic optimization, improvement of power quality for the forthcoming high-tech industries, and the discipline of operation and maintenance (O&M) for power plants need to be addressed holistically. The government of Bangladesh has declared its intention to develop the country by 2041 as the key goal of VISION 2041. To achieve the Vision, PSMP 2016 defines the intended goal and “five key viewpoints”, like:
• Enhancement of imported energy infrastructure and its flexible operation
• Efficient development and utilization of domestic natural resources (gas and coal)
• Construction of a robust, high-quality power network
• Maximization of green energy and promotion of its introduction
• Improvement of human resources and mechanisms related to the stable supply of energy
The 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) to transform our world include:
1: No Poverty 2: Zero Hunger 3: Good Health and Well-being 4: Quality Education 5: Gender Equality 6: Clean Water and Sanitation 7: Affordable and Clean Energy 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure 10: Reduced Inequality 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities 12: Responsible Consumption and Production 13: Climate Action 14: Life Below Water15: Life on Land 16: Peace and Justice Strong Institutions 17: Partnerships to achieve the Goal
From the above, list references are often made for goals 7 and 13 with links to the coal fired power plants. The global target to reach the goal of Target 7 are that by 2030, (i) enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including renewable energy, energy efficiency and advanced and cleaner fossil-fuel technology, and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology; and (ii) expand infrastructure and upgrade technology for supplying modern and sustainable energy services for all in developing countries, in particular least developed countries, small island developing states, and land-locked developing countries, in accordance with their respective programs of support.
However, not only the points 7 and 13, almost all other targets are closely linked to the cheap, reliable and continuous quality power supply. Under the prevailing situations and with the undesirable pandemic and war situations when the oil and gas prices are extremely volatile, coal could be only fuel with lesser uncertainties for its availability. Besides, the presence of coal deposits in Bangladesh has an added advantage of local coal mining and supply to the power plants which would provide a life line during the extreme event of global turmoil in the energy supply for power generation. Coal should therefore remain a factor under consideration along with the efforts to gradual switch over to renewables during the period under consideration.
If one looks at the activities of other countries dealing with coal, it would emerge that not much has been done by the coal dominant countries to bring down its prominence. Since the COP 26 there has not been a marked difference in coal mining and or utilization globally except that some old plants based on coal have been shut down to demonstrate the pledges by some countries opting for renewables. But at the same time efficiencies or modernization in other plants have been made, necessitating more use of coal. This is verified by the fact that the global carbon dioxide emissions in March 2022 have been recorded to be 6% higher than that during the corresponding period in the past which after COP 26 theoretically should have been lower. Coal operations in different countries seem to be in Business-as-Usual mode.
Notwithstanding the promises made by India in COP 26, it is moving very forcefully with coal sector development in their own country. Coal minister Pralhad Joshi said that being an affordable source of energy with substantial reserves, coal is going to stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future. The minister, in a written reply to Lok Sabha said the country will require base load capacity of coal-based generation for stability and also for energy security.
“As per the Inventory for Coal and Lignite as on 1 April 2021, the total assessed geological coal resource is 352 billion tonnes. Coal will remain a prime energy source for the near future as it is available in abundance,” said the minister.
India has committed to becoming a net-zero nation by 2070. Also, at the COP 26 summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India would increase the installed capacity of renewables to 500GW by 2030. However, the target seems unachievable right now, given India’s dependency on coal. Coal accounts for 55% of the country’s energy needs.
As per Economic Survey, the demand for coal is expected to remain in the range of 1.3-1.5 billion tonnes by 2030. The current per capita commercial primary energy consumption in India is around 350 kgoe/year. Thus, coal is not only the primary source of energy in the country but is also used as an intermediary by many industries such as steel, sponge iron, cement, paper, brick-kilns etc. Hence, there has been an overall increase in the demand of coal over the years.
“While India has committed to clean energy; the pace of transition to cleaner energy sources in India is to be viewed in the light of national circumstances, and principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, the transfer of climate finance and low-cost climate technologies,” said Joshi. Talking about the Glasgow Climate Pact, the minister said it does not mandate the phase-down of coal power and is not setting any timelines for the phase-down. The pact, the minister said, only calls upon parties to accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power in line with national circumstances.
In Bangladesh, the least cost option for power generation is an important factor to continue with the economic development of the country and it would be difficult to switch over to renewable sources of energy for electricity supply overnight. Bangladesh needs to reevaluate the position of energy supply under the present context when the world is shaken up with the post COVID pandemic coupled with the effect of Russian war complexities. The world oil and gas markets are so volatile that it is difficult to predict when the stability may return to the global oil market to have a smooth flow of fuels to the country. It would be impossible to continue with import of high-priced LNG and the burden would be too heavy in future to import liquid fuel for the needs of the power plants in the country. Only rays of hope could be seen in the horizon of coal. Global coal market may be comparatively less disturbed with the external factors that are now causing distortions in oil and gas supply. Besides, development of own coal deposits may be the straw for the power sector to remain afloat in the disturbed global conflicts. So, the cancellation of the coal-based power plants made earlier need to be reviewed immediately and the abandoned projects must be taken up for completion expeditiously, if necessary, even with the country's own funds as has been done in “Padma Bridge”.
Mohammad Mosharraf Hossain, Former Chairman of Petrobangla and Bangladesh Energy
