Bangladesh’s fossil fuel import bill could rise by up to $2.8 billion in 2026, or around 30% from 2025, if oil, gas and coal prices remain at their January-August averages, according to an analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA).
The additional cost could put further pressure on the taka, inflation and borrowing costs, while reducing the country’s import cover from 5.7 months to 5.2 months.
The increase is equivalent to around 10% of Bangladesh’s trade deficit, the analysis said.
Despite the higher bill, Bangladesh’s LNG imports fell nearly 13% during January-August compared with the same period in 2025.
Imports plunged about 83% between July and August, from 0.63 million tonnes to 0.11 million tonnes, amid disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Around 64% of Bangladesh’s electricity generation depends on gas, leaving the power system highly vulnerable to LNG supply disruptions. The power supply shortfall reached 3,592MW on August 11, equivalent to about 20% of demand at the time.
