Escalating tensions in the Middle East could create significant economic shocks for Bangladesh by raising global energy prices, increasing import costs and weakening export competitiveness, according to a new report published recently by the Policy Research Institute.
The report, titled Bangladesh Monthly Macroeconomic Insights (January-February 2026), said that geopolitical instability in the Middle East particularly the risk of disruptions in global oil supply, posed immediate and medium-term threats to Bangladesh’s fragile economic recovery.
PRI said that Bangladesh was highly exposed to global energy price volatility because it relied heavily on imported fuel to meet domestic demand.
The country’s total energy import bill already stands at about $12 billion annually, it said.
According to the report, even a moderate increase in oil prices could sharply raise Bangladesh’s import expenses.
A $10 per barrel increase in oil prices could raise Bangladesh’s energy import costs by about $900 million, while a $20 increase could push the bill up by nearly $1.8 billion, the report said.
