World energy consumption is expected to rise nearly 50% from 2018 levels by 2050, driven by countries where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia, the US Energy Information Administration said as it released its 2019 International Energy Outlook (IEO) on September 24.
“Energy consumption continues to grow globally, with changes in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East,” EIA Administrator Linda A. Capuano said during a presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. There could be nearly 70% more demand by 2050 in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, she said.
In the late 2040s, renewable fuels are expected to replace petroleum as the world’s main energy source as electricity use grows more quickly than other end-use fuels, Capuano said.
Worldwide renewable energy consumption increases by 3.1%/year between 2018 and 2050 compared with 0.6%/year in petroleum and other liquids, 0.4%/year growth in coal, and 1.1%/year in natural gas consumption under the IEO’s reference case.
The industrial sector will remain the single largest energy demand center, representing more than half of worldwide energy consumption during the projection period, Capuano said.
“While China remains the world’s largest consumer, demand growth is moving to India and elsewhere in Asia,” she said. “Oil consumption is not expected to peak despite the tremendous growth in electricity which includes more use for electric vehicles.”
The IEO’s reference case projects a nearly 40% growth in transportation energy consumption from 2018 to 2050, largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption is expected to increase nearly 80% during the forecast period.
Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement is expected to grow much more rapidly in these countries than in many which are OECD members, it said.
