Two distribution companies responsible for supplying electricity to Dhaka city are optimistic about much better services than last summer, except for a few isolated areas of old and new parts of the metropolis and adjoining suburbs. The managements of DPDC and DESCO are confident that their systems have improved with time for efficient and reliable management of the system. The total demand for 2.1 million consumers of DPDC and DESCO in the ensuing summer has been estimated at 2,714 MW. The distribution network system has the capacity of managing 4,732 MW. There is no doubt about the capacity of the networks of the two power distribution utilities. But even then, it is being said that in some areas including Lalbagh and Narinda, and adjoining areas, where the distribution lines are mostly dilapidated, may experience interruptions during the hot season. In Bashundhara,located in the new part of the city, quality power supply would not be possible as construction of new substation was not possible for non-availability of land. DESCO does not have the capacity now to supply power as per the demand of that area.
But the bottom line, as told by the management of the two companies, is consistently getting the power supply from PGCB as per demand. DPDC and DESCO are optimistic about getting the supply. Sources atBPDB related with power generation expect generating about 12,000 MW during this summer. There would not be any deficit at least from the generation side. But sources at Power Division informed the EP that DPDC and DESCO would not be able to supply quality power to all without interruption in their franchise areas even if they are supplied with power as per demand. It will take at least another area more to overcomethe system constraints as observed by Power Secretary Dr. Ahmed Kaikaus.
Other power distribution companies in the country have also taken up programs like DPDC and DESCO for expanding and strengthening their networks, making year-on-year projections up to 2041. While talking to EP, Engr. Bikash Dewan, Managing Director of DPDC, observed that positively motivated skilled manpower equipped with modern technology is essential for development and smooth operation of modern reliable power distribution networks for ensuring quality power supply without interruption like developed countries. We are developing such human capital gradually. But we have limitations now. We still have shortage of skilled manpower. Many power lines in DPDC area are 30-40 years old. We are replacing these in phases. We have already freed all substations and transformers from overloaded conditions. Projects have been taken up for taking the overhead distribution lines underground in different city areas. But in many areas under our franchise, especially in old part of Dhaka, it is not possible burying all distribution networks underground. Works for replacing some old cables in Old Dhaka areas and insulating the rest would start this year.
DPDC source informed the EP that loads from many long distribution feeder have been transferred in view of the experience of Summer 2017. The capacity of Dhanmondi Substation has been increased. Summer peak of Bangladesh is also the period of storms and cyclones.Technical crews would be kept stand by for meeting contingency arising out of system interruptions from storms and excessive rainfall. Siddhirganj sub-station had some issues for delivering power to distribution system. Remedial works are in progress and would complete before the summer. It should not be much of a problem in evacuating power to DPDC franchise area during this summer. But even then,the MD of DPDC could not guarantee supplying quality and uninterrupted power supply to all this summer. Engr. Dewan said that it would take few more years.
DESCO distribution networks in Uttara, Tongi, Gulshan, Baridhara and Bashundhara were extremely vulnerable in the last summer. Significant improvements have been made by DESCO since then. The demand in May 2017 was 843 MW. DESCO has not been provided with that much supply. This year, the peak demand is estimated to be 1,000 MW. DESCO is optimistic about getting the supply. The continued improvement and upgrading works over the last few years have made the system more reliable. But non-availability of land for Bashundhara substation would make power distribution to entire Bashundhara area and part of Gulshan and Banani region vulnerable. The Ghorashal-Tongi feeder may not also get required power supply. For this, new connections with full demand to industrial consumers in Tongi region remains suspended.
DESCO is also fully equipped and ready with required staff for meeting contingencies that may arise from natural calamities during the summer. More emergency squads would be ready this time than before. But both DPDC and DESCO have another issue. They have completed works of several substations, but could not be connected with sources and evacuation cables could not be laid for not getting road-cutting permissions from the city corporations. The system would continue to suffer if these works cannot be completed before the onset of the summer days.
Experts observe that stress must also be given on demand side management alongside the capacity enhancement programs. Load staggering in industrial areas and closure of shopping malls by 8PM must be strictly enforced. Works are going on for ensuring responsible and efficient use of power at different levels. The management of two companies informed about keeping their mobile courts active. Their publicity initiative for load staggering and efficient use of power would also continue.
DPDC and DESCO so far failed to meet their pledges for better system management. The end users continue to suffer. Rezaul Hasan Razu, a resident of BaitulAman Housing Society,alleged that they suffered from load-shedding even during winter peak whenpower supply interrupted for several hours. Caretaker Shaheen of a house at Shamoli Ring Road area said load-shedding even in February 2018. He operates stand by generator off and on. He apprehended the situation to worsen in the ensuing summer. Fazlul Karim Monir of Uttara Residential area alleged 18 hours of load-shedding on a summer day in 2017. The situation during current winter is much better. He is not sure if the situation would prevail in this summer too.
Helal Uddin, a leader of shop owners’ association, while talking tothe EP said that power distribution situation all over the country, including Dhaka, was diabolical to say the least. This winter the scenario is much better. The government has set up several new generation plants. We can expect a better situation this summer. But I also apprehend that the situation may not improve as expected during the ensuing summer. We will oblige the 8PM shut-down of shopping malls, but we want guarantee for uninterrupted supply for the remaining period.
DPDC Network Almost Ready
DESA was launched under unbundling and reform program of vertically integrated power system value chain management. DPDC is the subsequent form of the reform process. DPDC is serving 1.15 million consumers of Dhaka and Narayanganj now. This summer DPDC’s demand would be 1,714 MW against its capacity of 2,772 MW. DPDC forecasts demand for its franchise up to 2041 aligning it with PSMP as 11,181MW. The following table shows the projected demand and planned capacity of DPDC system
DPDC has initiated short, medium and long term programs for intensive capacity development for adopting modern technology. The Power Secretary is optimistic about DPDC’s ability to supply quality power without interruption in their system from 2019. But DPDC thinks it would take upto 2020 for achieving that capability. Works for modernizing 20 substations (132/33 and 33/11 KV) are in progress. These would be completed by end next year. There are considerable concerns of commissioning and putting into operation seven already completed substations before the ensuing summer as connections to sources and laying evacuation cables could not be done for not getting road-cutting permissions from the city corporation. DPDC is going to set up SCADA for centralized monitoring of operation of its system. It may come into operation in 2020.
DPDC would start transferring its overhead distribution lines to underground from Dhanmondiarea. Consultant has been engaged for this. Tender for engaging contractor would be invited in a month. Works for replacing some old cables in Old Dhaka areas and insulating the rest would start this year. These works would be done under own financing.
But DPDC would have to account for Tk 85 crore operating loss following announcement of new power tariff by BERC. This would create huge challenge for the company in accomplishing system improvement works using own money. Some projects taken up under G-G agreements with Chinese government have been stalled due to several complexities. DPDC is now working on reducing system loss from 8.40 -8.25%. The company is still over-staffed. Managing this issue creates challenges. We started works taking all DESA employees on board.The administrative overhead cost is considerably higher than other distribution companies.
Of the 1.15 million consumers, the industrial consumers are about 5,000.They account for 40% of power demand. Some projects are taken up for efficient supply of power to industrial consumers.Initiative has been taken to bring power supply to them under automatic metering system. These would make power supply to industrial consumers more efficient as these can be centrally monitored. Despite having several constraints, DPDC is optimistic about ensuring uninterrupted quality supply to all DPDC consumers by 2021.
DESCO: Uninterrupted Power Supply to All Cannot Be Achieved
The number of consumers of DESCO has grown to around 850,000 after its bumpy rides for over 20 years. The peak demand in May 2017 was 934MW. The load-shedding recorded on the day was 160MW. During the entire summer of 2017, the load-shedding in DESCO franchise area was 200-250MW.DESCO management observes that the system loss has been reduced to 7.24% for concerted efforts from everyone.During this summer, the peak demand would be 1,000 MW. The DESCO system has the capacity for managing up to 1,600 MW. BPDB is optimistic about generating up to 12,000 MW. If that happens at the generation point, there should not be any issue in supplying power as per demand to any distribution company.
DESCO like all other distribution companies have made significant investments in upgrading and modernizing its distribution network over the past few years.Some projects are already completed and some are at different stages of implementation. Now the DESCO system is capable of supplying 1,600 MW at 2,200 MVA.The summer peak demand is little over 1,000MW.Even then, DESCO cannot make power supply uninterrupted.Due to non-availability of land for Bashundhara substation, power supply to this vulnerable segment of Bashundhara, Dakhinkhan and Gulshan would remain uncertain.
But the situation in Uttara residential area is expected to be much better. The system has grown much reliable in the greater Mirpurarea. But there exists problem in getting required supply in Tongi area from PGCB. The Ghorashal-Tongi feeder line cannot meet the demand of Tongi area. This restricts us from extending connections in this important industrial hub.
For uninterrupted supply, it is essential to take overhead distribution lines underground. The works have started. Work order has already been issued for taking 165 circuit km line underground. The work is scheduled for completion by 2019. The company has started works on five new grid substations and augmentations of existing two substations. Works are also advancing on 14 new 33/11 KV substations and augmentations of 14 existing ones. Works for setting up SCADA system has started and it may come into operation by 2020. Brig General (Rtd) Shahid Sarwar, MD of DESCO, observed that despite all these, all out actions are being taken to disconnect all illegal connections. Illegal internet connections and cable TVs account for most of the illegal usage.
The company management is optimistic about readying the system by end 2019 for quality uninterrupted power distribution. But it would also depend on PGCB supplying the power as per demand. In 2017,the DESCO system was forced to let out 200-250 MW load-shedding as it was not supplied with the power it required for catering to summer peak. Hope in this summer,the NLDC would supply the required power.
This time BERC while fixing power tariff has given DPDC Tk 0.14 more than DESCO as bulk power tariff.This would reduce our profit and impede our reinvestment programs for system updating. DESCO considers it as disincentive though we are more efficient in operation than DPDC.
Conclusion
It appears that DESCO and DPDC are in better position for serving their customers this year than last summer provided that PGCB supplies them power as per demand. But industries having captive generation facilities are still not confident about relying on sustainable supply of power from national grid, leaving their own generation. They can not have trust on power system achieving reliability. But they agree that system has considerably improved than in the past. In summer, the irrigation load adds to summer demand.During the off-peak hours, power supply to rural areas,especially for irrigation, gets priority. Experts observe that the increase in generation capacity would take care of the growth in demand.But during this summer in addition to summer peak and irrigation, FIFA World Cup football would create additional load. It will bring new challenge.Two major distribution companies are apparently ready for embracing this challenge. The management is confident about much better customer services than the past summer. But all will depend on required power supply from generation to the inlets of distribution networks. BPDB is confident about generating 11,500-12,000 MW this summer. But one must note that the generation so far never exceeded 9,500 MW. Increasing generation and ensuring consistency is also a major challenge.
