The latest NDC Synthesis Report is considered a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year.
The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country, according to a statement on the report recently issued by Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC.
By contrast, he said, much bolder new national climate plans cannot only avert climate chaos – done well, they can be transformational for people and prosperity in every nation.
Bolder new climate plans are vital to drive stronger investment, economic growth and opportunity, more jobs, less pollution, better health and lower costs, more secure and affordable clean energy, among many others benefits.
As expected, with countries currently working to put together new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only fractional progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed – next year.
Current plans combined – if fully implemented – would see emissions of 51.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 - a level only 2.6 per cent lower than in 2019. Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. By 2035, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% compared to 2019 levels.
This is critical to limiting global heating to 1.5°C this century to avert the worst climate impacts. Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate disasters get rapidly worse.
The next round of national climate plans must deliver a dramatic step up in climate action and ambition.
While these plans are not one-size-fits-all, and are nationally determined, they all need to pass the ABC test: They must have ambitious new emissions targets that are economy-wide, covering all greenhouse gases, keeping 1.5 degrees alive. They must be broken down into sectors and gases.
