Braving odds, Bangladesh has aggressed as a promising member of the N-11 economies (Next Eleven Emerging Market Economies). The sustenance of this growth requires uninterrupted energy supply and a careful scrutiny of the national energy mix to complement the government’s projected Vision 2021, Vision 2030 and Vision 2041. However, the shortage and constraint in the availability of harvestable fossil fuels appeal the exploration of newer energy sources. This article examines the existing energy scenario from national roadmaps and action plans; investigate the alternative energy reserve and potential; and explores the potential trade-offs of alternative and conventional energy source or the adaption of both.
Intorduction
Energy is a key indicator of a developing nation's overall industrial, economic and social development. With the meteoric rise of metropolis, and improved municipal plans, Bangladesh is also having thousands of ongoing and incoming development projects. However, the mechanical process of this development including transportation, industrial, real states, residential and commercial projects stakes for power hungry energy consumption. The country is already struggling to meet the domestic energy demand and heading towards heavy import dependence. In 2018, Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) has allocated approximately BDT 7,000 crore (US$ 844.9 million) for the purposes of LNG import and operations of LNG terminals for the current year.
Majority of the development projects in Bangladesh are petroleum and gas dependent, as these are the major fuel sources in the national energy mix. Additionally, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) is planning the graduate to the middle income country with access to electricity for all. To meet the national goals and continue the required infrastructural development, the GoB needs to have readily deployable energy reserve. Already the rapid development of transit and infrastructure is requiring Bangladesh to consume 2,700 mmcdf of gas per day as opposed to the required 3,500 mmcdf.
Other than a moderate natural gas reserve, Bangladesh has a little hold of oil and coal. However, like many countries, Bangladesh shares a growing concern of fossil fuel depletion at an alarming rate. If continued at the current energy consumption rate, in the global scenario, will take upto 2088 to be completely depleted; when oil, gas and coal will run out respectively by 2051, 2061 and 2081 (CIA World Factbook, 2015). Moreover, the widely-talked green and eco-friendly industrialization from COP21 boldly forbids using of fossil fuel to reduce pollution and keeping a minimum reserve to maintain the earth core. Along with this, global warming has taken Bangladesh to an inflection point. Again, it requires a secured flow of energy regardless of source or provision to continue supplying energy to the grid for uninterrupted industrialization and modernization.
This paradoxical situation requires addressing one pivotal topic: the required energy source of Bangladesh. Should Bangladesh be moving towards alternative energy source and if yes, how far it has come? This further generates another question: what can be the ideal energy mix?
This paper gathers data from existing national roadmaps, working papers, and industry whitepapers. The results and the inferences have been derived from authors’ analysis based on empirical evidences and data plotting have been produced through cross-tabulation from the authors’ analysis.
Fossil Fuels
Petroleum is one of the most demanding yet impoverished energy sector in Bangladesh. Each year, Bangladesh imports more than five million tons of oil. In 2016, for example, the government planned to import 13 lakh tons of crude oil worth $553 million, putting inflationary pressure on the economy (The Daily Star, 2016). The latest and only oil field in Sylhet amounts only 153 million barrels. This reserve once drilled, will meet the current demand at current consumption rate only for 2 years (S&P Global Platts, 2013).
Although there is a sizeable gas stock in Bangladesh, if the current extraction rate continues, this reserve will dry up by 2031 (The Daily Star, 2015). Au contraire, Bangladesh hit an energy mother lode when it won 20,000 square kilometers of natural-gas-rich water line from India in a U.N. territorial arbitration in July 2014 (The Diplomat, 2014). However, this might not bear fruit immediately. Aside from the discovered area being highly expensive to excavate, the GoB has shown little interest in spending on the immediate energy infrastructure. Two bidders from Indian and U.S energy corporations have already knocked PetroBangla to operate in this 200 trillion cubic feet gas reserve area. Once ran, this largest supply in the Asia-Pacific will take Bangladesh to a whole new level.
Coal sector in Bangladesh occupies only 2% of total energy generation as of 2015. The Power Sector Master Plan (PSTM 2016) targets above 50% of total generation (21.71% from imported and 29.07% from domestic coal) by 2021. The ambitious shift is easily justifiable. The explored regions with coal potential hold an estimated 3 billion tons reserve which can serve energy demand for 50 years, considering 15% system loss during extraction. However, principal barriers for such operation are hostile nature and unfriendly methodologies of technical and environmental aspects. These barriers have even kept the proposed 30 projects and plants on hold or inoperable at least before 2019.
These depleting mediums raise the need for secondary energy source. Considering the present energy mix vs. future plan for LNG, Coal, and clean energy sector, we have a very promising prospect for investment. However, as a clean energy source, theoretically we have nuclear energy as an alternative option.
Secondary Energy Sources
Nuclear energy source is still a newborn in Bangladesh. The only project is the proposed Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, with dual stations (1,200 MWe ~ 3,000 MWth). Although the technical assistance will come from Russian Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation, the installation cost is projected to be a budget overrun (12.65 billion dollar excluding 4% interest rate). The flat out project is also high in risk profile in terms of technical complexity and maintenance. Similar Russian contract in other countries had proved to be time and cost overdue. In Iran, for example, a German-Russian contact took 39 years (1974-2013) to install a 1,000 MWe VVER plant (RT, 2014). Started by following a wishy-washy approach about public consultation, the Rooppur project if installed by targeted timeframe, still will be operable after 2021. Thus, the nuclear energy is not an immediate answer for secondary energy source.
This leaves us with another choice: renewable energy. This energy source, however, is still nascent stage in Bangladesh. Although, the total energy source primarily depends on conventional energy sources, Renewable Energy Policy 2009 of Bangladesh targets 5% of total energy production to be achieved by 2015 and 10% by 2020, while the share of Renewable Energy exceeds only 1% till now (Rahman, 2015).
Although Bangladesh is crisscrossed with many rivers, there are very few torrential rivers to house hydroelectric plants. Karnaphuli Power Station is the only plant in Bangladesh that generates 230 MW of electricity. As the southern Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) has Mountain Rivers with strong current, more hydroelectric plants can be initiated in this region to mitigate the demanding electricity gap. A Power Cell supervised study also suggests two rivers from this area: the Sangu River with a potential of 58.33 MW and the Matamuhuri River with 20.83 MW. With a target to increase the capacity, the GoB also plans to invest $1 billion to install a hydro-electricity power company. Aside from electricity generation, this plant will be able to import electricity from hydro power plants from high altitude countries, e.g., Bhutan and Nepal (Ferdousy, 2015).
A coastline supply of renewable energy can be the wind source. Due to wind energy’s limited circulation to off-shore islands, riverine and other inland open areas with strong wind regime, the southern part of Bangladesh can be brought under this source. In order to generate electricity from wind energy, Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has installed a total of 1,900 kW grid capacity at Feni and Kutubdia Island. Another 50-200 MW of wind power is at planning stage targeted to be operational at Parky Beach (Shah Mohazzem Hossain, 2015).
The most promising renewable source can be the solar energy. With an ambitious plan of being world’s “first solar nation”, (Nuclear Engineering International, 2015), (Coal as a Source of Electrical Energy in Bangladesh, n.d.).Bangladesh Solar and Renewable Energy Association (BSREA) is assisting the GoB to provide electricity to all by 2021. Side by side, Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) had initiated Solar Home System (SHS) program in 2003. Up to 2016 it has installed solar power in 4.5 million households, reaching 18 million people. Through this SHS program and similar utility scale applications, the government targets to achieve ‘Vision 2021’ with 1.7GW of solar capacity.
Some Sidewalk Progress
Transition is not always an easy choice. Bangladesh historic milieu makes the process more difficult. Nevertheless, mass consideration and public policy landscape are changing. The move towards alternative energy is coming from other directions as well. Although lately adopted, people are moving from oil-run vehicles to muscle-pulled two wheelers. These riders, most of whom are young people, are terming bicycle “ride for the environment” as eponym (Hammadi, 2013). This growing consciousness is enabling less use of the depleting energy and saving the environment.
To save the ardent electricity crisis, the Rural Electrification Board (REB) introduced the “Efficient Lighting Initiatives of Bangladesh (ELIB)” program in early 2009. Under this project, people from 1,400 rural and urban households voluntarily brought in their incandescent bulbs to exchange with new Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs). On June 19, 2010, this project hit a world record of collectively installing about five million energy saving CFL bulbs (Sarkar, 2010).
What can Bangladesh do?
Although we talk about green energy and 100% renewable energy, we cannot shift overnight, nor can Bangladesh depend on a single source of energy – at least not yet. As both renewable and non-renewable sources have their limitations, it is best to use different sources with maximum strength in their respective application and usage areas.
· Gas being the primary energy source, the uncharted area in the Bay of Bengal can be the best option for exploration of further reserve. If the massive energy mother lode is extracted, Bangladesh can start energy trading alongside meeting indigenous demand and presumably be the Asian Energy Superpower (Detsch, 2014).
· Majority of the potential micro-hydro sites in Bangladesh are located in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). However, establishing micro-hydro units requires utilization of hydropower and indigenous technical capabilities to exploit the existing momentums. The government should decentralize the micro-hydro units with local implementation and management capabilities. These planned hydroelectricity and micro-hydro projects will be additional source to overcome the chronic load-shedding problem in CHT. Additionally, the self-reliance and use of local resources will have notable impact on the development of remote tribal areas in the region.
· Energy need for shoreline areas in southern Bangladesh can be covered by harnessing the potential of wind power. The geographical spread may cover from Feni to Cox’s Bazar (BPDB). Natural disaster at coastal areas and over and under speed of wind are two major problems for wind power. The government should proceed for a proper wind speed calculation and wind mapping.
· Off-grid and rural areas are the most suitable options for solar power application. This potential power source can mitigate the under-addressed areas, when natural gas and coal power can be solely used for industrialization purpose and city needs (Rahaman 2015; Anam 2016). But it is difficult for Bangladesh to implement grid connected solar system as it will create disturbance in the current network of PGCB because of the unpredictability of the power. Mega disturbance, battery replacement issues, power shortage and outage are some of the technical obstacles to install mega renewable energy power plants in Bangladesh. As the solar is dependent on sunlight, there will be no power at night which will create a sudden shortage.
· Land scarcity is a major obstacle for both solar and wind power plant installation. Hence, a trade-off between land for cultivable crop and renewable energy power plants is a critical decision for the government.
· Absence of tariff structure is another major barrier for both technology type (renewable and non-renewable). The existing tariff mechanism discourages the private investors to invest into the uncertain nature of wind and power energy. To address this case, private investment for the renewable energy power plants should follow a competitive bidding process, e.g., instrument competitive business model.
Although the recommendations are non-exhaustive, if integrated – it can be a reference point for future roadmaps of national energy mix. The first world countries are experimenting with unorthodox forms of renewable energy for sustainable growth and ecofriendly industrial advancement. A developing country like Bangladesh should at least adopt the mainstream technologies of renewable energy after careful analysis of the national energy mix.
Riasat Noor;
Energy Specialist
Email: riasat.noor@hotmail.com
