Gas and renewable power are set to dominate Belgium’s power generation mix, following the phase-out of 7.2 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative coal and nuclear capacity by 2025. Gas-based capacity is set to reach 9GW in 2030, while renewable capacity (excluding hydro) will reach 18.1GW in 2030, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData's latest report, ‘Belgium Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2019 - Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape’ reveals that Belgium’s base-load capacity was being tackled by nuclear and gas power after phasing out their entire coal capacity of 1.2GW between 2012 and 2016.
Following the 4GW nuclear-phase out in 2025, Belgium will solely rely on gas for base-load power generation. Therefore, between 2019 and 2030, gas based capacity is set to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% to reach 9GW in 2030, from 6.6GW in 2019. Furthermore, the share of gas in Belgium’s generation mix is set to increase from 29% in 2018 to 31% in 2030.
Renewable capacity, which is expected to increase from 8.6GW in 2018 to 18.1GW in 2030, will make up the remaining capacity and will account for 63% of the total capacity in 2030.
Arkapal Sil, Power Industry Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “As renewable power is intermittent in nature, renewable expansion will also result in growth of the energy storage market to ensure a steady power supply and will cater to any rise in power demand in the country. In addition, the government is likely to introduce energy efficiency measures as an instrument of state policy to better perform demand side management.”
The nuclear phase out in 2025 is well timed as, with a capacity of 7.6GW, gas can replace the former to handle the base-load. In addition, GlobalData’s report found that power consumption is set to undergo a negligible increase from 82.2TWh at 0.3% CAGR in 2019 to 84.8TWh in 2030 at a CAGR of 0.3%.
Sil concludes: “In this scenario, even if renewable power generation is inadequate, the rise in power demand can be managed through limited imports from the neighboring countries.”