Rystad Energy is forecasting that oil demand will decrease 10.9 percent, or 10.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd), year over year in 2020.
The prediction, which sees oil demand at 88.7MMbpd this year as of May 5, is Rystad’s latest in a line of weekly forecasts that aim to calculate the effect of the coronavirus on demand. These are frequently updated as a result of evolving developments around the world.
Rystad’s latest forecast shows that global demand for road fuels will fall by 11.2 percent, or by 5.3MMbbpd, year-over-year. The company sees global jet fuel demand falling by almost 33.6 percent year-over-year, or by 2.4MMbpd. Total oil demand in the United States for this year is now forecasted to fall by 2.2MMbpd to 18.3MMbpd. Total oil demand in Europe is expected to fall by 1.7MMbpd to 12.5MMbpd.
April’s demand for oil was estimated at 71.8MMbpd, or a 27.1 percent drop, according to Rystad. The company expects May’s demand to fall by 21.3 percent to 77.7MMbpd and June’s demand to drop by 15 percent to 83.5MMbpd.
Rystad’s previous forecast projected a decrease in oil demand in 2020 to 88.8MMbpd. The company’s estimates show that total oil demand in 2019 was approximately 99.5MMbpd. Total oil demand in 2021 is currently expected to hit 98.8MMbpd.